Affordability is a hot topic in Seattle right now. Recent opinion pieces, reports, publications, and proposed legislation suggest changing zoning rules to allow bigger buildings ("upzoning") is the way to create more affordable housing. Upzoning for affordability is a curious approach since the Mayor and City Council effectively "downzoned" by moderating development in industrial zones to lessen "speculation" and dampen rapidly increasing land costs that threaten to drive manufacturing jobs out of our city. Historically, upzoning has produced gentrification, higher land costs, and loss of existing affordable housing, not affordability.

Seattle's current zoning laws will enable over three times the new housing units needed to house the population growth projected between 2006 and 2022. This strongly suggests the solution to affordable housing is something other than upzoning. Understanding this will help policymakers focus on the right solutions and avoid wasting energy on the wrong ones.